2 Bets on Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final

2 Bets on Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final

Stanley Cup Final Game 4: Avalanche vs. Lightning Odds

avalanche odds -105
Lightning Odds -115
Below 6 (+105 / -125)
Weather 8 p.m. ET
Odds through BetMGM. Get up-to-date NHL odds here.

The Tampa Bay Lightning made the most of their home ice in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final, cutting the Colorado Avalanche’s series lead to 2-1. Now, they can turn the final into a best-of-three series with another win in their friendly confines.

Offense has been a common theme in the finals, with all three games topping the total. However, both teams have played a suffocating brand of defense that lends itself to a low-scoring game.

Let’s dive into the matchup and find some betting value on Avalanche vs. Lightning Game 4.

Colorado Avalanche

No one has been able to reign in the Avalanche this postseason. The Western Conference champions are averaging 4.6 goals per game en route to a 14-3 record. In doing so, the Avs have raised their scoring metrics beyond sustainable levels, putting themselves at risk of regression in upcoming games.

The Avalanche finished the regular season with an 8.9% five-on-five shooting percentage, rising to 10.7% across all strengths. So far this postseason, those metrics have risen to 9.7% and 11.5%, respectively. Colorado was limited to two goals on Monday, which came with the man advantage. That was the sixth straight game in which the Lightning held opponents to zero goals in five on five, a span that includes just seven goals against.

That highlights another trend we’ve picked up from the Avs. Colorado has executed its power play flawlessly this season, operating one of the most efficient units in the league. However, as power play opportunities dry up, so do his scoring chances.

A more disciplined effort from the Lightning would prevent the Avalanche from having the additional scoring opportunities it heavily relies on.

tampa bay lightning

As noted, scoring has been hard to come by at the Amalie Arena this postseason. The team’s improved defense and Andrei Vasilevskiy are two factors that shift the balance in Tampa Bay’s favor, and we expect both to be an emphasis in Game 4.

The Lightning have stymied opponents at home, limiting guests to six or fewer high-danger chances in six of nine home games. They’re not making it easy to create scoring opportunities, limiting opponents to 18 or fewer in five of nine.

That correlates with improved play from Vasilevskiy, who has allowed just six goals in 5-on-5 at home this postseason, resulting in a 97.2% save percentage. He has been equally impressive at stopping shots at all strengths, posting a 94.7% save percentage.

Scoring hasn’t flowed naturally for the two-time defending champions, but we’ve seen them field a more effective offense at home. Tampa’s scoring jumps to 3.9 goals per game at home, compared to just 2.4 on the road.

It’s apparent that the Lightnings rely on lane matching to hinder their opponents’ scoring and bring out their skilled group in more ideal circumstances. That should help them again on Wednesday night.

Avalanche vs Lightning Pickaxe

While we can’t discount the importance of Tampa Bay’s defensive structure, no one has been able to figure out Vasilevskiy at home. Colorado was limited to two goals Monday night, and further correction could be expected as their shooting percentages return to average.

Coupled with the Bolts’ combination of lines at home, we anticipate the goals to come tonight. That plays directly into Lightning’s modus operandi at home, leaving an advantage by backing them in the money line.

To choose: Lightning Money Line (-110) | Under 6 (-115)

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